Entrepreneur and businessman Kevin O'Leary, who refers to himself as “Mr. Wonderful” and is widely recognized for his extended role on “Shark Tank,” mentioned in a recent Fox Business interview that he looks to bettors, rather than pollsters, to accurately assess the pulse of a political race.
In an interview with Stuart Varney, 70-year-old O’Leary stated that he believes betting trends are a more dependable indicator of a race than surveys.
"I’d rather go with the Vegas bettors in terms of looking at election results. They’re better than the pollsters, frankly, if you look at the history,” O’Leary said.
From a technical standpoint, Las Vegas lacks political bettors since Nevada prohibits its licensed sportsbooks from accepting wagers on election outcomes. No jurisdiction permitting legal sports betting allows wagering on elections, yet this practice is common across the United Kingdom and Europe.
In the US, numerous gamblers wanting to invest money in elections engage in contentious political betting platforms. These online platforms enable players to buy and sell shares of election outcomes through a peer-to-peer system.
Political wagering is permitted in certain regions of O’Leary’s home country, including Ontario. Following the unsuccessful assassination attempt on Donald Trump in July, FanDuel and BetMGM in Canada took down their 2024 betting odds for the US election.
Accuracy of Political Markets
Political betting exchanges are still quite new, but these platforms accurately predicted the 2016 election outcome, whereas almost all polls showed Hillary Clinton significantly leading before the competition with former President Donald Trump. The consensus odds on political exchanges accurately forecasted that Joe Biden would remove Trump from the White House almost four years prior.
So, what are the current odds indicating? Polymarket, a decentralized crypto trading platform, shows Kamala Harris as the favorite on November 5, with her odds implying a 52% chance of being the 47th president of the U.S. Trump's shares are currently at implied odds of 46%.
UK bookmakers providing traditional odds on US elections likewise have Harris as the leading candidate. Betting shops on the high street have the vice president listed at 4/5 (-120). A successful $100 wager on that line would earn $80.
Trump, who was previously a strong contender before President Joe Biden chose to listen to his party leaders' requests to withdraw from the 2024 race, is now seen as the underdog. The previous casino owner's odds for 2024 stand at even money, meaning a successful $100 wager would yield a profit of $100.
Robert Kennedy, Jr. stands in a far-off third place at 100/1.
Still Early to Forecast
O’Leary believes that the betting markets will offer more valuable insights as the policy dialogue between Harris and Trump intensifies and potential debates occur.
"I don’t think anybody can call this race right now. We’ve got to get into the policy wars and hopefully the debate wars,” O’Leary said.
“I want to remind you that back when Trump was debating Clinton, there was a Sunday when the football games were on and I found myself watching the debate and being more entertained than football,” O’Leary continued. “I think the potential of a Harris-Trump debate is going to be great television.”